WASHINGTON (AP) -- Newly laid-off workers filing claims for unemployment benefits posted a sharp decline last week.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that claims for unemployment benefits fell by 33,000 last week to 342,000. Economists had been expecting claims would rise by 3,000.
The four-week moving average for claims fell by 7,250 to 369,500. Even with the improvements, analysts are still worried that the weak economy is putting greater pressures on the labor market. The unemployment rate climbed to 5.1% in March as businesses laid off the largest number of workers in five years.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Article from CNN-Money on Small Business Hiring, growth
Surprise rise in private-sector jobs
Survey from payroll services firm ADP shows increase in the number of jobs created last month.
By Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: April 2, 2008: 11:34 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- In a surprising flash of good news for the U.S. economy, businesses added jobs in March, according to a survey of private sector employers released Wednesday.
Payroll services firm ADP's employment report showed an increase of 8,000 private sector jobs last month. Economists were expecting a decline of 45,000 private sector jobs, according to Briefing.com.
The report showed a revised loss of 18,000 jobs in February, which was the first decline in the two years ADP has been tracking employment data.
"This is an unexpected piece of constructive news," said Bob Brusca, an economist at FAO Economics. "It suggests that the job market isn't getting unequivocally worse."
However, while the report showed the job market expanding overall, certain underlying trends remain intact.
The service sector added 85,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector cut 77,000 jobs in March - the 16th consecutive monthly decline.
Small-sized businesses, those with fewer than 50 workers, added 55,000 jobs in March. Large businesses, on the other hand, cut 52,000 jobs.
The increase in small business jobs is not surprising, according to Molly Brogan, a spokeswoman for the National Small Business Association.
"When you're looking at an economic downturn, starting your own business becomes a more viable option," she said.
Brogan thinks a "large chunk" of the 55,000 jobs added in the small-business segment came from workers exiting large businesses. Moreover, the survey counts business operated by individuals as small businesses, which could also account for the large increase.
Meanwhile, residential construction businesses cut 22,000 jobs in March - the 16th straight month of decline - as the turmoil in the housing market continued to batter homebuilders.
Employment in the financial services sector was flat.
Earlier Wednesday, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that March layoff notices fell by 26% to 53,579 from February. But that still puts the number of announced cuts 9% above year-earlier levels.
Both reports come ahead of Friday's closely watched employment report from the Labor Department, which includes private and public sector jobs data. Economists are forecasting a decline of 50,000 jobs in March. The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 5% from 4.8% in February.
Brusca said the ADP report could indicate that Friday's report will show a smaller-than-expected decline, or possibly an increase in employment.
First Published: April 2, 2008: 8:30 AM EDT
Survey from payroll services firm ADP shows increase in the number of jobs created last month.
By Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: April 2, 2008: 11:34 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- In a surprising flash of good news for the U.S. economy, businesses added jobs in March, according to a survey of private sector employers released Wednesday.
Payroll services firm ADP's employment report showed an increase of 8,000 private sector jobs last month. Economists were expecting a decline of 45,000 private sector jobs, according to Briefing.com.
The report showed a revised loss of 18,000 jobs in February, which was the first decline in the two years ADP has been tracking employment data.
"This is an unexpected piece of constructive news," said Bob Brusca, an economist at FAO Economics. "It suggests that the job market isn't getting unequivocally worse."
However, while the report showed the job market expanding overall, certain underlying trends remain intact.
The service sector added 85,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector cut 77,000 jobs in March - the 16th consecutive monthly decline.
Small-sized businesses, those with fewer than 50 workers, added 55,000 jobs in March. Large businesses, on the other hand, cut 52,000 jobs.
The increase in small business jobs is not surprising, according to Molly Brogan, a spokeswoman for the National Small Business Association.
"When you're looking at an economic downturn, starting your own business becomes a more viable option," she said.
Brogan thinks a "large chunk" of the 55,000 jobs added in the small-business segment came from workers exiting large businesses. Moreover, the survey counts business operated by individuals as small businesses, which could also account for the large increase.
Meanwhile, residential construction businesses cut 22,000 jobs in March - the 16th straight month of decline - as the turmoil in the housing market continued to batter homebuilders.
Employment in the financial services sector was flat.
Earlier Wednesday, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that March layoff notices fell by 26% to 53,579 from February. But that still puts the number of announced cuts 9% above year-earlier levels.
Both reports come ahead of Friday's closely watched employment report from the Labor Department, which includes private and public sector jobs data. Economists are forecasting a decline of 50,000 jobs in March. The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 5% from 4.8% in February.
Brusca said the ADP report could indicate that Friday's report will show a smaller-than-expected decline, or possibly an increase in employment.
First Published: April 2, 2008: 8:30 AM EDT
Friday, April 4, 2008
Economy loses 80,000 jobs
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. employers slashed jobs on their payrolls for the third straight month in March and unemployment rose to a nearly three-year high, offering the latest signs that the economy has fallen into a recession.
The Labor Department's much anticipated report showed a net loss of 80,000 jobs in the month, marking the longest period of decline since early 2003.
February's loss was revised to 76,000 jobs. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast that payrolls would fall by 50,000 in the latest reading.
The job losses in both January and February were revised sharply higher, adding an additional 67,000 job losses to the previous readings. The Labor Department now estimates that the economy has shed 232,000 jobs in the first three months of this year.
The job losses were widespread, with the battered construction sector losing 51,000 jobs and manufacturing employment falling by 48,000. But there were also losses in key service sector industries. Retail employment dropped by 12,000 jobs, and business and professional service employers cut staff by 35,000.
The unemployment rate jumped from the 4.8% reading in February to 5.1%, the highest level since May 2005. Economists had forecast that unemployment would rise to 5%.
The unemployment rate is based on a separate survey of households, rather than the employer survey that produces the closely watched payroll number.
The household survey gave an even grimmer view of the job losses in the economy, with the number of Americans saying they were unemployed soaring by 434,000, the biggest jump in that reading since October 2001, right after the Sept. 11 attacks.
The job outlook will be a key factor influencing interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve when it meets on April 29 and 30.
Earlier this week Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made his bleakest and bluntest assessment on the economy's condition. The central bank chief told a joint Congressional committee that a recession is possible in the first half of this year.
The Labor Department's much anticipated report showed a net loss of 80,000 jobs in the month, marking the longest period of decline since early 2003.
February's loss was revised to 76,000 jobs. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast that payrolls would fall by 50,000 in the latest reading.
The job losses in both January and February were revised sharply higher, adding an additional 67,000 job losses to the previous readings. The Labor Department now estimates that the economy has shed 232,000 jobs in the first three months of this year.
The job losses were widespread, with the battered construction sector losing 51,000 jobs and manufacturing employment falling by 48,000. But there were also losses in key service sector industries. Retail employment dropped by 12,000 jobs, and business and professional service employers cut staff by 35,000.
The unemployment rate jumped from the 4.8% reading in February to 5.1%, the highest level since May 2005. Economists had forecast that unemployment would rise to 5%.
The unemployment rate is based on a separate survey of households, rather than the employer survey that produces the closely watched payroll number.
The household survey gave an even grimmer view of the job losses in the economy, with the number of Americans saying they were unemployed soaring by 434,000, the biggest jump in that reading since October 2001, right after the Sept. 11 attacks.
The job outlook will be a key factor influencing interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve when it meets on April 29 and 30.
Earlier this week Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke made his bleakest and bluntest assessment on the economy's condition. The central bank chief told a joint Congressional committee that a recession is possible in the first half of this year.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Jobless claims: Highest since '05
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- New filings for unemployment claims surged in the latest week to the highest level since September 2005, according to a government report released Thursday.
The Labor Department said applications for unemployment benefits rose to 407,000 in the week ended March 29, up from a revised 369,000 claims in the previous week.
A consensus of economists polled by Briefing.com had expected initial jobless claims to fall to 365,000 from the originally reported 366,000.
"There has been a slow deterioration in the labor market," Paul Kasriel, chief economist with Northern Trust, said. "We're starting to see a speed-up in this deterioration," he added.
The surge in jobless claims comes a day before the government's closely watched March employment report. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect that report to show a decline of 50,000 jobs.
The job market has suffered from the deepening economic slump. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that a "recession is possible," and that the economy could contract over the first half of the year.
The Labor Department said over the past four weeks, a running average of 374,500 people filed new claims per week, up 4.4% from the previous week's revised average of 358,750. In the year-ago period, the average was at 311,750.
Continuing claims for those already receiving benefits rose to 2.9 million in the week ended March 22, the most recent week available. That's up from a revised 2.8 million reported for the prior week, matching the four-week average.
New jobless claims in Pennsylvania increased the most in the week ended March 22, the report showed. Michigan saw the biggest drop, with first-time claims falling 7,660 due to fewer layoffs in the automotive industry.
The Labor Department said applications for unemployment benefits rose to 407,000 in the week ended March 29, up from a revised 369,000 claims in the previous week.
A consensus of economists polled by Briefing.com had expected initial jobless claims to fall to 365,000 from the originally reported 366,000.
"There has been a slow deterioration in the labor market," Paul Kasriel, chief economist with Northern Trust, said. "We're starting to see a speed-up in this deterioration," he added.
The surge in jobless claims comes a day before the government's closely watched March employment report. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expect that report to show a decline of 50,000 jobs.
The job market has suffered from the deepening economic slump. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that a "recession is possible," and that the economy could contract over the first half of the year.
The Labor Department said over the past four weeks, a running average of 374,500 people filed new claims per week, up 4.4% from the previous week's revised average of 358,750. In the year-ago period, the average was at 311,750.
Continuing claims for those already receiving benefits rose to 2.9 million in the week ended March 22, the most recent week available. That's up from a revised 2.8 million reported for the prior week, matching the four-week average.
New jobless claims in Pennsylvania increased the most in the week ended March 22, the report showed. Michigan saw the biggest drop, with first-time claims falling 7,660 due to fewer layoffs in the automotive industry.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
New unemployment claims fall
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- New filings for unemployment claims fell last week, according to a report released Thursday by the Labor Department.
According to the report, 366,000 people filed for unemployment for the first time in the week ended March 22, down 9,000 from a revised 375,000 reported in the previous week.
A consensus of economists polled by Briefing.com had expected to see initial jobless claims to fall to 371,000 from the originally reported 378,000.
Much of the prior report's new claims numbers were inflated by an ongoing strike in the automobile industry, according to Andrew Gledhill, an economist with Moody's Economy.com. The fact that claims only retreated 9,000 this week is "further evidence the labor market is having difficulty," he said.
The level of new jobless claims can be used to determine the health of the overall economy, but one economist doesn't see a lot of problems with the latest numbers.
"This measure is not turning on the recession signal," said Robert Brusca, economist with FAO Economics. "The job market continues to show resiliency."
Over the past four weeks, a running average of 358,000 people filed for unemployment for the first time per week, up 1,750 from the previous week's revised average of 356,250, and higher than the 312,000 average reported during the same period last year.
"So far it shows there is some slowdown in the economy," but "it isn't that dramatic," Brusca said.
Other economic signals have not shown as much strength.
A report from the Commerce Department released Thursday showed that the gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produces within the country, rose a paltry annual rate of 0.6% between October and December of 2007. In the previous quarter, the GDP grew at 4.9%.
Continuing claims for those already receiving benefits fell just slightly to 2.845 million in the week ended March 15, the most recent week available, from a revised 2.85 million reported for the prior week.
Over the four weeks ended March 15, continuing jobless claims reached a running average of 2.82 million per week, up from the prior week's revised average of 2.8 million, and remains well above the 2.5 million average reported for the same period last year.
The number of claims for those who are already on unemployment reveals that slower hiring is more responsible for the troubled labor market than loss of jobs, according to Gledhill.
"Payrolls are a lot leaner," he said, "Businesses are really reigning in their hiring."
New jobless claims in Missouri, Michigan and Ohio increased the most in the week ended March 15, due to layoffs in the automobile industry, the report said. California saw the biggest drop in first-time claims, falling more than 5,000.
While the weekly jobless claims report offers an up-to-the week measure of the labor market, the Labor Department's monthly employment report, which next comes out April 4, will reveal a broader view of layoffs and hiring. Many economists use the measure to help determine the health of the overall economy.
According to the report, 366,000 people filed for unemployment for the first time in the week ended March 22, down 9,000 from a revised 375,000 reported in the previous week.
A consensus of economists polled by Briefing.com had expected to see initial jobless claims to fall to 371,000 from the originally reported 378,000.
Much of the prior report's new claims numbers were inflated by an ongoing strike in the automobile industry, according to Andrew Gledhill, an economist with Moody's Economy.com. The fact that claims only retreated 9,000 this week is "further evidence the labor market is having difficulty," he said.
The level of new jobless claims can be used to determine the health of the overall economy, but one economist doesn't see a lot of problems with the latest numbers.
"This measure is not turning on the recession signal," said Robert Brusca, economist with FAO Economics. "The job market continues to show resiliency."
Over the past four weeks, a running average of 358,000 people filed for unemployment for the first time per week, up 1,750 from the previous week's revised average of 356,250, and higher than the 312,000 average reported during the same period last year.
"So far it shows there is some slowdown in the economy," but "it isn't that dramatic," Brusca said.
Other economic signals have not shown as much strength.
A report from the Commerce Department released Thursday showed that the gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produces within the country, rose a paltry annual rate of 0.6% between October and December of 2007. In the previous quarter, the GDP grew at 4.9%.
Continuing claims for those already receiving benefits fell just slightly to 2.845 million in the week ended March 15, the most recent week available, from a revised 2.85 million reported for the prior week.
Over the four weeks ended March 15, continuing jobless claims reached a running average of 2.82 million per week, up from the prior week's revised average of 2.8 million, and remains well above the 2.5 million average reported for the same period last year.
The number of claims for those who are already on unemployment reveals that slower hiring is more responsible for the troubled labor market than loss of jobs, according to Gledhill.
"Payrolls are a lot leaner," he said, "Businesses are really reigning in their hiring."
New jobless claims in Missouri, Michigan and Ohio increased the most in the week ended March 15, due to layoffs in the automobile industry, the report said. California saw the biggest drop in first-time claims, falling more than 5,000.
While the weekly jobless claims report offers an up-to-the week measure of the labor market, the Labor Department's monthly employment report, which next comes out April 4, will reveal a broader view of layoffs and hiring. Many economists use the measure to help determine the health of the overall economy.
Thursday, March 20, 2008
I'm Not Interested
I'm Not Interested
By Wendy Weiss at EyesOnSales, a community for and by sales professionals (http://www.eyesonsales.com)
Created Mar 6 2008 - 11:42am
Whenever I conduct a workshop or teleclass, invariably someone asks the question: "What should I say when the prospect says, 'I'm not interested?'"
My response invariably is: "It's probably too late."
Certainly you can try to recover from that "I'm not interested" response. You can ask, "Why do you say that?" (Say this gently, as though you are confused and really, really want the answer.) You can repeat back: "Not interested?" (Again, say this gently, as though you are confused.) This sometimes gets people to start talking and explain themselves. Bottom line, however, if everyone that you speak with says, "I'm not interested," you're not saying anything interesting.
If you have a compelling script with stellar delivery, you will hardly ever hear the words, "I'm not interested." That's because you will actually be saying something interesting!
On the telephone, you have approximately 10-20 seconds to grab your prospect's attention - and if you do not do that, your call is probably over. 10-20 seconds is not a lot of time. You are not going to convey a lot of information in 10-20 seconds. Instead, what you'll convey is your energy, your confidence and your excitement. Your words must reach out and immediately grab and hook your prospect's attention.
From the moment your prospect says, "Hello," your goal is to gain your prospect's attention so that she is hungry to hear more. If you don't hook your prospects in the beginning of your conversation, they will not want to speak with you. They will say, "I'm not interested," and worse case, they may hang up on you.
In order to hook your prospect, ask yourself: Whom are you calling? Why should they be interested? You're looking for hot buttons, those issues that are so important to your prospect that when they come up, your prospect stops in her tracks to listen. The big point here is that when you are trying to hook someone, you have to have some sense of what's important to them.
Ask yourself: What is the value that I (the company/product/service) bring to customers. How do they benefit? How do I (the company/product/service) make customer's lives easy, stress-free, happy, profitable etc? You may have to do some market research and/or brainstorming here. Once you've determined that value, however, lead with it.
Here's an example:
Last year when I conducted the "Cold Calling College--Live" group coaching program (http://wendyweiss.com/coldcallingcollegelive.html), I received an e-mail from a participant. He said he was calling owners of mid-size companies and not having much success. His e-mail read:
"...I say my name and company and then say 'we specialize in business performance management solutions for budgeting, reporting and analysis.... I hear 'not interested' then they hang up before I can say anything else.
Another thing I have tried is, '...the reason I am calling is to introduce [company name]'s budgeting reporting analysis solutions and to invite you to an Excel seminar....' But after this I hear, 'not interested,' then they hang up before I can say anything else."
It's hardly surprising that these introductions didn't work. They weren't interesting. There was nothing in those first sentences to grab and hook a business owner's attention.
Later on, after going through the "Cold Calling College" process, the person who wrote this e-mail was able to pare his introduction down. His introduction ended up being something like: "We help companies keep the money they make." Short, sweet, to the point and focused on the value to business owners. Prospects stopped hanging up on him. Instead, he was able to start scheduling meetings with those business owners.
Lesson learned: Do your homework. Do what ever is necessary to truly understand your prospects. Before you ever pick up the phone, have the answer to the question: "Why should this prospect be interested?" If you have that answer, you will never again hear: "I'm not interested."
By Wendy Weiss at EyesOnSales, a community for and by sales professionals (http://www.eyesonsales.com)
Created Mar 6 2008 - 11:42am
Whenever I conduct a workshop or teleclass, invariably someone asks the question: "What should I say when the prospect says, 'I'm not interested?'"
My response invariably is: "It's probably too late."
Certainly you can try to recover from that "I'm not interested" response. You can ask, "Why do you say that?" (Say this gently, as though you are confused and really, really want the answer.) You can repeat back: "Not interested?" (Again, say this gently, as though you are confused.) This sometimes gets people to start talking and explain themselves. Bottom line, however, if everyone that you speak with says, "I'm not interested," you're not saying anything interesting.
If you have a compelling script with stellar delivery, you will hardly ever hear the words, "I'm not interested." That's because you will actually be saying something interesting!
On the telephone, you have approximately 10-20 seconds to grab your prospect's attention - and if you do not do that, your call is probably over. 10-20 seconds is not a lot of time. You are not going to convey a lot of information in 10-20 seconds. Instead, what you'll convey is your energy, your confidence and your excitement. Your words must reach out and immediately grab and hook your prospect's attention.
From the moment your prospect says, "Hello," your goal is to gain your prospect's attention so that she is hungry to hear more. If you don't hook your prospects in the beginning of your conversation, they will not want to speak with you. They will say, "I'm not interested," and worse case, they may hang up on you.
In order to hook your prospect, ask yourself: Whom are you calling? Why should they be interested? You're looking for hot buttons, those issues that are so important to your prospect that when they come up, your prospect stops in her tracks to listen. The big point here is that when you are trying to hook someone, you have to have some sense of what's important to them.
Ask yourself: What is the value that I (the company/product/service) bring to customers. How do they benefit? How do I (the company/product/service) make customer's lives easy, stress-free, happy, profitable etc? You may have to do some market research and/or brainstorming here. Once you've determined that value, however, lead with it.
Here's an example:
Last year when I conducted the "Cold Calling College--Live" group coaching program (http://wendyweiss.com/coldcallingcollegelive.html), I received an e-mail from a participant. He said he was calling owners of mid-size companies and not having much success. His e-mail read:
"...I say my name and company and then say 'we specialize in business performance management solutions for budgeting, reporting and analysis.... I hear 'not interested' then they hang up before I can say anything else.
Another thing I have tried is, '...the reason I am calling is to introduce [company name]'s budgeting reporting analysis solutions and to invite you to an Excel seminar....' But after this I hear, 'not interested,' then they hang up before I can say anything else."
It's hardly surprising that these introductions didn't work. They weren't interesting. There was nothing in those first sentences to grab and hook a business owner's attention.
Later on, after going through the "Cold Calling College" process, the person who wrote this e-mail was able to pare his introduction down. His introduction ended up being something like: "We help companies keep the money they make." Short, sweet, to the point and focused on the value to business owners. Prospects stopped hanging up on him. Instead, he was able to start scheduling meetings with those business owners.
Lesson learned: Do your homework. Do what ever is necessary to truly understand your prospects. Before you ever pick up the phone, have the answer to the question: "Why should this prospect be interested?" If you have that answer, you will never again hear: "I'm not interested."
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
A slice of pizza gets pricier
NEW YORK (CNN) -- Pizzeria owner Joe Vicari shakes his head as he prepares to rip open a 50-pound bag of flour for another batch of dough.
"That's 37-bucks. $37. I couldn't believe it!" says Vicari.
Since opening Mariella Pizza in mid-town Manhattan 30-years ago, Vicari, says he has never experienced such a jump in the cost of his ingredients.
"I can't even believe how much the flour [goes] up. When I see the bill I can't believe it, that's too much," says the veteran pizza maker, who emigrated from Sicily. Only four weeks ago, Vicari says, he was paying just $16-a-bag for Gold Medal brand flour, which at $37-a-bag now seems more golden than ever.
Executives at his supplier, Cremosa Food of Melville, New York, did not return CNN's repeated phone calls, though a source at the company confirms there are plans for a price hike to $40-a-bag in the next week. Cremosa, the source said, is allocating flour to restaurants, refusing to allow customers to buy more than they had purchased the prior week.
Vicari struggles with the thought of raising the price of a slice, which he lifted to $2.50 only a few months ago due to an increase in cheese costs.
"Over here people come to buy pizza, working people. How much [am] I going to raise the pizza now?" asks Vicari. "Somebody come in here for two slices, and I take $5. I feel very, very bad for the person."
But, he concedes, if flour rises a few dollars more, above $40-a-bag, he probably will pass along the higher expense to customers.
The cost of cereals and bakery products climbed at an annual rate of more than 9% last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, compared to a rise in the overall Consumer Price Index during the past 12 months of 4%.
Indeed, it's not only pizza that's becoming more costly. Baked goods of all kinds are heading higher as the price of flour rises due to the fact that wheat is trading near a record high.
At the Chicago Board of Trade a bushel, 60-pounds of wheat, now trades for more than $1100, more than two-and-1/2 times what it was just a year ago.
Why? You can lay part of the blame on ethanol. Huge demand for ethanol has farmers planting more corn to produce the fuel when they could be growing wheat.
"Ethanol was competing against wheat for acres in 2007," said Joe Victor, grain analyst with Allendale Inc.
Poor growing conditions last year also affected the global wheat crop, from a winter freeze in the U.S. to droughts in Australia and France.
And, the dollar sinking to a record low makes U.S. wheat relatively cheap for foreigners.
"Fifty-nine-percent of everything we raised in 2007 is leaving the U.S.," said Victor. "That's 9-10% greater than normal." As a result, Victor said, U.S. wheat supplies are at their lowest level since the end of World War II, another factor pushing prices skyward.
The good news for U.S. consumers is that high wheat prices have led farmers to plant a large crop of winter wheat, which could temper retail prices later this year.
But, for now, it appears likely the cost of baked goods is heading higher.
"It's killing us, it's killing us. It's forcing me to pass it on to the consumer," said Frank Karalis co-owner of Europan Bakery Café in Manhattan. Karalis was holding a menu on which he had just crossed out every price and written in new, higher prices he plans for next week: Bagel with butter $1.30, up 20-cents; Muffins $2.25, up 25-cents; Paninis $7.20 up 25-cents.
"Someone's gonna buy a croissant here for $2 and tomorrow they're going to pay $2.50. They're not going to like that," Karalis said.
"That's 37-bucks. $37. I couldn't believe it!" says Vicari.
Since opening Mariella Pizza in mid-town Manhattan 30-years ago, Vicari, says he has never experienced such a jump in the cost of his ingredients.
"I can't even believe how much the flour [goes] up. When I see the bill I can't believe it, that's too much," says the veteran pizza maker, who emigrated from Sicily. Only four weeks ago, Vicari says, he was paying just $16-a-bag for Gold Medal brand flour, which at $37-a-bag now seems more golden than ever.
Executives at his supplier, Cremosa Food of Melville, New York, did not return CNN's repeated phone calls, though a source at the company confirms there are plans for a price hike to $40-a-bag in the next week. Cremosa, the source said, is allocating flour to restaurants, refusing to allow customers to buy more than they had purchased the prior week.
Vicari struggles with the thought of raising the price of a slice, which he lifted to $2.50 only a few months ago due to an increase in cheese costs.
"Over here people come to buy pizza, working people. How much [am] I going to raise the pizza now?" asks Vicari. "Somebody come in here for two slices, and I take $5. I feel very, very bad for the person."
But, he concedes, if flour rises a few dollars more, above $40-a-bag, he probably will pass along the higher expense to customers.
The cost of cereals and bakery products climbed at an annual rate of more than 9% last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, compared to a rise in the overall Consumer Price Index during the past 12 months of 4%.
Indeed, it's not only pizza that's becoming more costly. Baked goods of all kinds are heading higher as the price of flour rises due to the fact that wheat is trading near a record high.
At the Chicago Board of Trade a bushel, 60-pounds of wheat, now trades for more than $1100, more than two-and-1/2 times what it was just a year ago.
Why? You can lay part of the blame on ethanol. Huge demand for ethanol has farmers planting more corn to produce the fuel when they could be growing wheat.
"Ethanol was competing against wheat for acres in 2007," said Joe Victor, grain analyst with Allendale Inc.
Poor growing conditions last year also affected the global wheat crop, from a winter freeze in the U.S. to droughts in Australia and France.
And, the dollar sinking to a record low makes U.S. wheat relatively cheap for foreigners.
"Fifty-nine-percent of everything we raised in 2007 is leaving the U.S.," said Victor. "That's 9-10% greater than normal." As a result, Victor said, U.S. wheat supplies are at their lowest level since the end of World War II, another factor pushing prices skyward.
The good news for U.S. consumers is that high wheat prices have led farmers to plant a large crop of winter wheat, which could temper retail prices later this year.
But, for now, it appears likely the cost of baked goods is heading higher.
"It's killing us, it's killing us. It's forcing me to pass it on to the consumer," said Frank Karalis co-owner of Europan Bakery Café in Manhattan. Karalis was holding a menu on which he had just crossed out every price and written in new, higher prices he plans for next week: Bagel with butter $1.30, up 20-cents; Muffins $2.25, up 25-cents; Paninis $7.20 up 25-cents.
"Someone's gonna buy a croissant here for $2 and tomorrow they're going to pay $2.50. They're not going to like that," Karalis said.
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